A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
